I have been reading a number of opinions by reputable professors of political science, a number of respected political analysts that are journalist and have read thousands of opinions on social media about our up coming elections for the past year. I have taken note of the findings of a number if polls with conflicting outcomes.
Very few could give me an idea of the likely scenarios of what we can expect, to give me an idea of how I or the public should vote. The loud mouthed politicians and once confident parties are all making tall promises or using scare tactics to woo the voter because they, too, are uncertain about their future.
All that this type of electioneering has done is to confuse the voters, who are totally disillusioned with most politicians. Many people who comment about our political situation have little knowledge about the millions of voters who do not belong to social media nor do they bother to participate in the conversation on our country’s politics because they don’t have expensive data to waste.
The so called huge numbers that we see at the rallies is a mere drop in the ocean compared the 20 million voters who are neither members of parties nor are they bothered to attend rallies. The three major contenders, ABC/DA/EFF, do not have more than one and a half million paid up members out of an electorate of twenty million. These 18 million non members are too poor to join a party or too busy trying to survive than to waste their precious time attending political rallies.
I feel that, unlike previous predictable elections, this time round, we have two clear cut scenarios. The first scenario, which would be the safest for our country is a majority for the ANC under Ramaphosa, without him having to form a coalition with the EFF. If Ramaphosa gets this majority, then the wheels of justice against corruption can go full steam ahead, without interference from the Zuma faction, because they would be cut down to size.
Such a scenario will entrench Ramaphosa’s position and his faction because people will switch allegiance to a winner. The majority of the black rural voters will vote ANC because none of the other parties have anything to show them other than tall promises. The middle and upper income blacks, many of whom, who do not belong to parties, would like to see Ramaphosa win, so they will cast their vote in favour of him. Many of them will come from the DA because of their disillusionment with the DA and the conduct of its leadership towards blacks in the party, and especially, after Zille’s politically suicidal racist comments and arrogance.
The older opposition parties and many new kids on the block might just end up losing their deposits and will shut shop. The EFF will attract the unemployed youth, who are no more than two million. The educated youth, even if unemployed, can see right through Malema’s duplicitous life style and they will not fall for his lies. They too will veer towards Ramaphosa because of their resentment for Zuma and his corruption. The latter will see him as their saviour.
The news about the Zuma faction, heavily supported by Julius Malemma, that there is a move to recall Ramaphosa, is a last ditch scare tactic, both by Malema and the Zuma faction to turn voters away from the ANC, out of absolute fear by the Zuma faction and Malemma under a strong Ramaphosa. Unfortunately, this fake news tactic has not filtered through to the 18 million voters who are not members of any political party and are totally oblivious of this fake news.
The second terrible scenario is for an ANC minority to go into coalition with the EFF. The EFF will want one thing and that the VBS scandal and Malemma’s corrupt deals in the North West must not be pursued by an efficient and determined SARS. It will have nothing to do with EWC or any of the election promises. It will be about jockeying for ministerial posts.
The SACP, after this election, will be history. An ANC/EFF coalition will not bode well for the country because that will definitely hamper the work of SARS, the hawks and the NPA. If the the UDM and Inkatha win enough votes, then a coalition between the ANC and them would be a far better option than an ANC/EFF coalition. So, nationally, we would be best off voting for an ANC under Ramaphosa because he has shown his mettle in the way he fired the two corrupt, Zuma acolyte prosecutors and the corrupt SARS commissioner, Tom Moyane and put his foot down on the SOEs.
Voting for the ANC nationally is probably the safest bet. Provincially, where service delivery is of paramount concern, the DA has proved itself. This would apply in the western Cape. The rest of the country will see a number of ANC/EFF coalitions because of the DA’s unpopularity amongst the black electorate in the rest of the country.
If the DA does not win a majority in the Western Cape, they could form a coalition with the Cape Party, which has been fairly consistent about its policies and for the future of this province. The ANC at a provincial level has done very poorly when it comes to service delivery in the past with 86% failing to produce a clean audit. It’s highly unlikely at a provincial level they will have much to offer.
Dr Ellapen Rapiti is a family physician, specialising in child and mental health and addiction counselling.